Lake Central
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #27
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #5
Crown Point Regional Rank #1
Highland Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 24th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.1%
Advance to State Finals 87.9%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Crown Point Invitational Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Raider Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Highland Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/14 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 450 335 324 442 424 408 459 518 416 703 484 500 474
Team Adjusted Rating 335 324 429 337 390 459 518 416 662 484 500 474
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Crown Point Invitational Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Raider Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Highland Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
143  Austin Wojcik 11 16:50 17:03 16:44 16:30 16:39 17:25 16:39 16:46 16:40 17:56 17:02 17:20 16:43
184  Ben Perschon 9 16:59 16:48 16:37 17:09 16:35 16:59 17:06 17:15 16:51 17:41 17:01 17:07 16:52
264  Riley Petrovich 11 17:12 17:01 16:52 16:37 17:37 17:30 16:52 17:40 17:01 17:16 17:17
276  Drew McGrath 11 17:14 17:03 16:48 17:02 17:21 16:31 16:43 17:13 17:27 17:17 17:56 17:14 17:05 18:47
349  Evan Smith 10 17:25 17:39 16:53 17:03 17:22 16:57 16:50 17:38 17:42 17:27 17:50 17:47 17:21
397  Kaden Smith 12 17:31 17:24 17:17 17:23 16:59 17:08 17:07 17:10 17:31 17:40 17:47 18:15 17:44 17:42
459  Roger Ochoa 11 17:39 17:45 17:27 17:33 17:46 17:58 17:33 17:36 17:42 17:30 17:48 17:50 17:32 17:47
637  Tyler Gagliardi 11 17:56 17:54 18:08 18:09 18:04 17:38 17:43 17:58 17:53 18:14
765  Sebastian Groszek 11 18:10 18:47 17:36 17:52 18:46
885  Aiden Illic 11 18:20 18:26 18:35 18:24 18:28 18:19 18:19 18:13
906  Patrick Ryan 10 18:22 18:41 18:27 18:28 18:23 18:43 18:42 18:01 18:13 18:23
917  Dominic Negrete 10 18:22 18:22 18:46 18:32 18:19 18:12 18:24 18:22
989  Julio Herrera 11 18:28 17:59 18:34 18:32 18:29 18:37 18:25 18:34
1,116  Antoni Jablonski 11 18:38 18:13 19:08 18:25 18:41 18:45 18:31
1,169  Owen Golder 10 18:42 18:54 18:57 18:38 18:40 18:36 18:54 18:33
1,258  Owen Thompson 10 18:49 18:57 18:52 18:57 19:00 18:50 18:18 18:56
1,278  Mike Schutz 10 18:50 18:46 18:54 18:49 18:37 19:09 18:47
1,313  Humza Mohuiddin 11 18:53 18:59 19:09 18:49 18:37 19:07 18:49
1,323  Jake O'Sullivan 10 18:54 19:43 19:29 18:48 18:58 18:45 18:39




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 87.9% 21.1 514 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.3 9.0 9.7 12.9 15.7 19.6
Semi-State 100% 4.5 164 1.1 10.3 19.2 23.2 21.4 12.9 7.4 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 54 91.5 8.3 0.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 32 99.9 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Austin Wojcik 88.9% 114.2 8.3% 42.4%
Ben Perschon 88.0% 127.8 0.8% 18.8%
Riley Petrovich 87.9% 150.9 0.0% 2.1%
Drew McGrath 87.9% 153.1 0.0% 1.8%
Evan Smith 87.9% 168.4 0.0% 0.1%
Kaden Smith 87.9% 174.7 0.0% 0.0%
Roger Ochoa 87.9% 182.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Austin Wojcik 100% 21.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.1 4.0 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.8 4.8 5.4 5.1 4.3 4.3 100.0%
Ben Perschon 100% 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.5 100.0%
Riley Petrovich 100% 44.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 99.8%
Drew McGrath 100% 45.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 99.7%
Evan Smith 100% 60.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.6%
Kaden Smith 100% 68.7 0.0 0.0 94.0%
Roger Ochoa 100% 81.8 81.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Austin Wojcik 100% 5.6 0.2 1.6 10.4 22.8 24.6 16.2 9.4 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ben Perschon 100% 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.2 13.0 18.6 16.4 12.8 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Riley Petrovich 100% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 7.9 9.1 9.7 10.2 10.0 8.9 7.8 6.7 5.9 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Drew McGrath 100% 13.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 6.4 8.2 9.5 10.0 9.2 9.1 8.4 7.5 6.7 5.3 3.9 3.4 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 100.0%
Evan Smith 100% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.8 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 8.1 7.4 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.4 100.0%
Kaden Smith 100% 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.4 5.6 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.7 8.3 7.8 6.9 6.3 100.0%
Roger Ochoa 100% 24.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.7 6.4 7.7 8.2 8.9 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Austin Wojcik 3.4 0.2 2.3 31.8 41.3 18.3 5.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
Ben Perschon 4.6 0.0 0.3 6.3 20.7 39.4 25.8 5.9 1.4 0.2
Riley Petrovich 6.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 20.0 36.2 26.6 8.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drew McGrath 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 15.6 32.5 33.2 10.5 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Evan Smith 8.6 0.1 1.6 5.2 16.9 42.4 23.3 7.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kaden Smith 9.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.3 20.3 41.1 21.9 7.1 2.2 0.4 0.1
Roger Ochoa 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 13.7 41.3 27.6 9.8 3.5 0.4 0.0